Lemming99

Looking at three of IOG's fields and further to some analysis of the shareholders and brief history I thought I'd run some of the numbers as we have Blythe and Elgood producing first gas hopefully in early March. Here are a few bullet points summarising each field (sourced primarily from corporate presentation 15th Dec ) Blythe  platform successfully installed in Q2 -'21 Max gas rate of 45.5 mmscf/d in Q3 -'21 First gas expected a week after back gas Elgood  Max gas rate of 57.8 mmscf/d in Q3 - '21 First gas expected a week after back gas Southwark platform successfully installed in Q2 -'21 development drilling started Q4 -'21 Noble Hans Deul rig suspended drilling due to seabed conditions Optimal plan is to resume drilling 25th Feb to 12th Mar (4-6 wks from Operational update 25 Jan) Phase 1 capex Field Development plan £305.5m Overspend 20% to 25% once Southwark completed 20% overspend would be FDP capex of £366.6m (extra £61.1m) 25% overspend would be F

 As a relatively recent investor in IOG, I thought I would write up some of my research whilst waiting for that update about first gas. From the website "IOG is focussed on the Southern North Sea (SNS) with a fully-funded Saturn Banks Project consisting of a 50% operated stake in six proven gas discoveries plus the Saturn Banks Pipeline and onshore Saturn Banks Reception Facilities at the Bacton Gas Terminal." Bacton is in Norfolk and we own both the facilities there and a concrete pipeline to get there. We farmed out most of the other 50% to an Australian firm called CalEnergy in 2019 according to this article . They paid £40m upfront and will pay up to £125m in development costs. At the same time we launched a bond to raise aprox £70m. At the end of Feb 2020 as the first incling of the potential for a pandemic arose CalEnergy declined to spend a further £20m buying half of our stake in the Harvey and Redwell licences according to this article . At this point, the price per

 

 Here's the first version of my table plotting GKP revenue receipts Method: Cell K2, Cost pool is J2 - J12 + J32 Annual production is daily x 365 Cell L12 and L20 artificially reduced as cost pool not available Same for M12 and M20 Marcap is TVR x SP Exchange rate fixed at 1.35 Revenue e.g. I37 of $8m for 2020 is prior to additional accounting write downs Note slight variance of I22 ($102m) to official revenue receipts of $101.1m for 2020 {click spreadsheet to enlarge} link to new v0.2   I own shares in GKP, this is not investment advice. Please do your own research, I'm happy to share mine

 One of my key reasons to invest in a company is their ability to create free cash flow. At this time it's more important than ever. I do have some investments in companies that don't produce free cash flow (yet) such as Aminex, Eve Sleep and Independent Oil & Gas. I'm just doing some analysis on the companies I invest in and thought I would share the findings. Two of the companies that I'm particularly interested in are Tullow Oil and Gulf Keystone Petroleum . Those links take you to my blog posts where I'm happy to share my research (with further evidence based links to company data) Each company produces their data in a different way, using different ratios. One of my objectives for this blog post was to present companies side by side with a single % figure for their Free Cash Flow (FCF) divided into their marcap and a single % figure for their dividend divided into their marcap. I've used last year's data for most of the following companies, but for

 Based on the average OP in Jan of $54.77 and Feb of $62.28 and what looks like it might be as high as $67 for the average in Mar, I've taken a look at the forecast and potentially booked free cash flow for Tullow oil prior to financing. Tullow has reduced its risk significantly with a $48 bbl hedged floor for 60% of their revenues in '21. At an OP of $50 they expect to make $200m of pre-financing free cash flow. Based on a potential average OP of $61.35 for the whole of Q1, it looks like Tullow will book $77.59m of free cash towards their financing obligations. They already have liquidity headroom of $900m based on their reserves based lending agreed. Back when the OP was $40 Tullow engaged with bond holders for discussions. At an OP of $50 there is no need for such discussions. For an additional $10 / bbl to $60 there is an extra $100m of FCF pre-financing expected in '21. This works out to $1 bbl = $10m FCF for the workings below. If the OP were to average $65 in Q2-Q4 t