Working model v 0.1 - GKP revenue receipts

Here's the first version of my table plotting GKP revenue receipts

Method:

Cell K2, Cost pool is J2 - J12 + J32

Annual production is daily x 365

Cell L12 and L20 artificially reduced as cost pool not available

Same for M12 and M20

Marcap is TVR x SP

Exchange rate fixed at 1.35

Revenue e.g. I37 of $8m for 2020 is prior to additional accounting write downs

Note slight variance of I22 ($102m) to official revenue receipts of $101.1m for 2020

{click spreadsheet to enlarge}

link to new v0.2

I own shares in GKP, this is not investment advice. Please do your own research, I'm happy to share mine

Comments

Short Hare vs Tullow Tortoise

Well that's a bit contrived but we are in a race; it's the shorts against the longs. The shorts want the Tullow price to go to 1p or less and the longs 100p or more. Where are we at the moment? Somewhere in the middle at 45p. There are actually at least 5 hares in this particular race; Odey, Pictet, Varde, Whitebox and Key Group. Key Group are flagging a bit and have dropped to 0.49% or less which means that they don't have to report anymore. Odey and Pictet seem convinced of victory and have raised their stake in the last week of February. Varde has decided they're too far ahead and have repaid 0.32% of the company value on 19 Feb. I expect they're very pleased with themselves as that cost just £1.54m on 19 Feb and would cost £2.06m in todays money 11 days later. So why do investment managers short stock? Broadly speaking it's for two reasons, the first is that they've gone through a discounted cash flow based valuation and looked at any other factors such ...

Metro Bank comparing new share price with old price - post 75m new shares

I wasn't actively tracking Metro Bank, but had been aware of the story these past few weeks. Over the weekend I started reading up about them. The close on Thursday was 536p trading up on Friday to close at 669p up 24.8%. As I write today they're up about 10% at 772p (It also was at 782p whilst working out some of the numbers below) The cash raise was priced at 500p a 36p discount to closing price on Thursday They wanted to raise £350m but actually raised £375m issuing 75m new shares. The BBC wrote about the crisis on 19th March '19 when the share price was 850p, it had dropped from 3396p on 27 July '18 (75% drop) Metro has debt of £249m Here's some high level analysis to translate old money into new money (partly as Google haven't updated the total voting rights (TVR) yet). 27th July '18 company valuation was Marcap £3,308,398,753 2nd May '19 TVR was 97,420,458 and Share price 650p Marcap £633,232,977 Share price at 500p Marcap £487,102...

It started with a kiss

Never thought it would come to this is no doubt what Odey is thinking about his cummulative borrowings of Tullow shares. Perhaps he hasn't worked it out as he's had some successes in other areas. Despite the 120 odd changes in their short position over 5 or 6 years I found that I could search and filter through short tracker.co.uk and Tullow's list of Total voting rights to get the numbers. Methodology: The changes in the short position are exact. The share prices from Google are to within a week or so as it wasn't listing them all (hence you'll see a few records in a row with the same share price). This is the same for the total voting rights, I've broadly got the total number of shares right. I would say overall it's at least 95% accurate. It took an hour as it was (where do I find the time?) but would have taken much longer to get that last 5% accuracy. It's worth pointing out that some large financial institutions short companies in certain sectors ...

Lemming99

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