Working model v 0.2 for GKP

Metro Bank comparing new share price with old price - post 75m new shares

I wasn't actively tracking Metro Bank, but had been aware of the story these past few weeks. Over the weekend I started reading up about them. The close on Thursday was 536p trading up on Friday to close at 669p up 24.8%. As I write today they're up about 10% at 772p (It also was at 782p whilst working out some of the numbers below) The cash raise was priced at 500p a 36p discount to closing price on Thursday They wanted to raise £350m but actually raised £375m issuing 75m new shares. The BBC wrote about the crisis on 19th March '19 when the share price was 850p, it had dropped from 3396p on 27 July '18 (75% drop) Metro has debt of £249m Here's some high level analysis to translate old money into new money (partly as Google haven't updated the total voting rights (TVR) yet). 27th July '18 company valuation was Marcap £3,308,398,753 2nd May '19 TVR was 97,420,458 and Share price 650p Marcap £633,232,977 Share price at 500p Marcap £487,102...

Valuing Ruvuma before the farm out

There are two ways to value an oil or gas company, one is varying degrees of estimation of the quantity of oil or gas there is in the ground (and the costs to get it to market) and the other is the speed with which they can get it out of the ground once in production. This week, Aminex and their subsidiary Ndovu announced that Tanzanian government approval had been received for the Ruvuma farm out. They are no doubt dotting the i's and crossing the t's on the legal documents relating to transfer of 50% of the PSA and operatorship to ARA. Aminex started the week with a 75% working interest in Ruvuma, and may end next week with 25% and some cash. Some of this cash will be used to pay back the $5m they've borrowed from ARA over the last 12 months.$2m of this was needed to pay capital gains tax to the Tanzanian Government. As part of the farm out Aminex will get $5m and will be able to repay ARA and be back to where they started the year. They will also get a total of £1.97m i...

Metro Bank - regulation, reporting and market sentiment

Several things will need to happen before MetroBank is allowed to recover. I'll divide these into two categories: 1) regulatory and reporting 2) emotional 1) Regulatory and reporting. Having done a bit of research it seems to me that the relevant regulatory authorities are The Bank, FCA and PRA. The Bank of England did a handy announcement on the day of the new share sale saying that Metro are profitable, have enough money and this new money is for growth. The Prudential Regulation Authority seem to judge the appropriateness of board members in banking and can ban people. Metro have 6 or their 9 board members who've been in position since the beginning in 2010 and are now nearing the end of their 9 year "maximum" term. These mates are seen as a bit too insider-ish it would seem. Usually people don't get banned per se, but withdraw their application for continued tenure and step aside gracefully. We'll probably see some new blood appearing on the BOD (an...

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