Working model v 0.2 for GKP

Metro Bank comparing new share price with old price - post 75m new shares

I wasn't actively tracking Metro Bank, but had been aware of the story these past few weeks. Over the weekend I started reading up about them. The close on Thursday was 536p trading up on Friday to close at 669p up 24.8%. As I write today they're up about 10% at 772p (It also was at 782p whilst working out some of the numbers below) The cash raise was priced at 500p a 36p discount to closing price on Thursday They wanted to raise £350m but actually raised £375m issuing 75m new shares. The BBC wrote about the crisis on 19th March '19 when the share price was 850p, it had dropped from 3396p on 27 July '18 (75% drop) Metro has debt of £249m Here's some high level analysis to translate old money into new money (partly as Google haven't updated the total voting rights (TVR) yet). 27th July '18 company valuation was Marcap £3,308,398,753 2nd May '19 TVR was 97,420,458 and Share price 650p Marcap £633,232,977 Share price at 500p Marcap £487,102

Valuing Ruvuma before the farm out

There are two ways to value an oil or gas company, one is varying degrees of estimation of the quantity of oil or gas there is in the ground (and the costs to get it to market) and the other is the speed with which they can get it out of the ground once in production. This week, Aminex and their subsidiary Ndovu announced that Tanzanian government approval had been received for the Ruvuma farm out. They are no doubt dotting the i's and crossing the t's on the legal documents relating to transfer of 50% of the PSA and operatorship to ARA. Aminex started the week with a 75% working interest in Ruvuma, and may end next week with 25% and some cash. Some of this cash will be used to pay back the $5m they've borrowed from ARA over the last 12 months.$2m of this was needed to pay capital gains tax to the Tanzanian Government. As part of the farm out Aminex will get $5m and will be able to repay ARA and be back to where they started the year. They will also get a total of £1.97m i

Learning more about IOG

As a relatively recent investor in IOG, I thought I would write up some of my research whilst waiting for that update about first gas. From the website "IOG is focussed on the Southern North Sea (SNS) with a fully-funded Saturn Banks Project consisting of a 50% operated stake in six proven gas discoveries plus the Saturn Banks Pipeline and onshore Saturn Banks Reception Facilities at the Bacton Gas Terminal." Bacton is in Norfolk and we own both the facilities there and a concrete pipeline to get there. We farmed out most of the other 50% to an Australian firm called CalEnergy in 2019 according to this article . They paid £40m upfront and will pay up to £125m in development costs. At the same time we launched a bond to raise aprox £70m. At the end of Feb 2020 as the first incling of the potential for a pandemic arose CalEnergy declined to spend a further £20m buying half of our stake in the Harvey and Redwell licences according to this article . At this point, the price per

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