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Showing posts from May, 2019

Calculating Metro Bank's Net Asset Value

With some corrections / additional comments in blue below. Now that Metro Bank has a new £375m on deposit, I thought I would work out the net asset value and shareholder equity. Total Assets at 31 March '19        £22,194m New Capital                                       £375m ------------------------------------------------------- Total                                              £22,569m Total Liabilities at 31 March         £20,788m Shareholder Equity                          £1,781m Total Voting Rights                    172,420,458 Net Asset Value per share                   £10.33 Current Share Price                                 789p Discount to NAV                                    23.6% Same figures for a couple of other banks Lloyds NAV 53p currently trading at 58p (8% premium) CYBG (inc Virgin Money) NAV 128p currently trading at 182p (42% premium) I think that makes Metro Bank a buy, as they literally have pounds in the bank that you can buy

Metro Bank comparing new share price with old price - post 75m new shares

I wasn't actively tracking Metro Bank, but had been aware of the story these past few weeks. Over the weekend I started reading up about them. The close on Thursday was 536p trading up on Friday to close at 669p up 24.8%. As I write today they're up about 10% at 772p (It also was at 782p whilst working out some of the numbers below) The cash raise was priced at 500p a 36p discount to closing price on Thursday They wanted to raise £350m but actually raised £375m issuing 75m new shares. The BBC wrote about the crisis on 19th March '19 when the share price was 850p, it had dropped from 3396p on 27 July '18 (75% drop) Metro has debt of £249m Here's some high level analysis to translate old money into new money (partly as Google haven't updated the total voting rights (TVR) yet). 27th July '18 company valuation was Marcap £3,308,398,753 2nd May '19 TVR was 97,420,458 and Share price 650p Marcap £633,232,977 Share price at 500p Marcap £487,102

Could Genel Energy have a P/E of 4.5 in 2019 ?

Followers of Genel Energy will know that they spent $1.3bn on a couple of gas and oil assets in Northern Iraq. These fields are Miran and Bina Bawi. Genel had been carrying a lot of weight on its balance sheet for Miran and in the most recent financial year they wrote off $424m which is about 140% of their EBITDAX. As such they didn't make a profit last year. The purpose of this article is to look at a price / earnings ratio that ignores this one off write down. (By the way, the gas and oil is still in Miran; just not going to be produced anytime soon.) At the bottom of page 10 in this presentation  Genel talk about making $20m per month profit at an Oil Price (OP) of $60 increasing to around $30m per month at an OP of $80. I would say that the OP has averaged $66 or $67 this year, let's say $66. As such this would indicate that Genel are making $23m a month profit in the first 4 months. We know that Free Cash Flow was $44m for Jan/Feb according to this announcement .

New to Yü

Yesterday I was doing some research into Eve Sleep and stumbled across Yü Group. Can you guess what first intrigued me about the company? We all like a momentum play, but I aspire to be a value investor. So I rolled up my sleeves and started reading about the company (that many seemed to know about already). Here are some key things that I found: Yü Group raised £11.6m in March '18 with a share placing  They ended the year with £9.7m more cash than Dec '17.  As such they burnt £1.9m of the new placing money. They have no debt They look on track to make £88m to £100m revenue in '19 on a single digit margin north of 7.3% Let's say this is 8% on £100m. That's £8m gross profit. Current marcap is £38.26m 8/38.26 = 20.9% gross profit to marcap at 237p In 2017 Yü Group made £6.818m Gross profit on £45.6m revenue. After costs and tax the profit for the year was £711,000 or 5p per share. In 2018 Yü Group made (£5,873) gross profit (i.e. loss