Working model v 0.1 - GKP revenue receipts

Here's the first version of my table plotting GKP revenue receipts

Method:

Cell K2, Cost pool is J2 - J12 + J32

Annual production is daily x 365

Cell L12 and L20 artificially reduced as cost pool not available

Same for M12 and M20

Marcap is TVR x SP

Exchange rate fixed at 1.35

Revenue e.g. I37 of $8m for 2020 is prior to additional accounting write downs

Note slight variance of I22 ($102m) to official revenue receipts of $101.1m for 2020

{click spreadsheet to enlarge}

link to new v0.2

I own shares in GKP, this is not investment advice. Please do your own research, I'm happy to share mine

Comments

Short Hare vs Tullow Tortoise

Well that's a bit contrived but we are in a race; it's the shorts against the longs. The shorts want the Tullow price to go to 1p or less and the longs 100p or more. Where are we at the moment? Somewhere in the middle at 45p. There are actually at least 5 hares in this particular race; Odey, Pictet, Varde, Whitebox and Key Group. Key Group are flagging a bit and have dropped to 0.49% or less which means that they don't have to report anymore. Odey and Pictet seem convinced of victory and have raised their stake in the last week of February. Varde has decided they're too far ahead and have repaid 0.32% of the company value on 19 Feb. I expect they're very pleased with themselves as that cost just £1.54m on 19 Feb and would cost £2.06m in todays money 11 days later. So why do investment managers short stock? Broadly speaking it's for two reasons, the first is that they've gone through a discounted cash flow based valuation and looked at any other factors such ...

Metro Bank comparing new share price with old price - post 75m new shares

I wasn't actively tracking Metro Bank, but had been aware of the story these past few weeks. Over the weekend I started reading up about them. The close on Thursday was 536p trading up on Friday to close at 669p up 24.8%. As I write today they're up about 10% at 772p (It also was at 782p whilst working out some of the numbers below) The cash raise was priced at 500p a 36p discount to closing price on Thursday They wanted to raise £350m but actually raised £375m issuing 75m new shares. The BBC wrote about the crisis on 19th March '19 when the share price was 850p, it had dropped from 3396p on 27 July '18 (75% drop) Metro has debt of £249m Here's some high level analysis to translate old money into new money (partly as Google haven't updated the total voting rights (TVR) yet). 27th July '18 company valuation was Marcap £3,308,398,753 2nd May '19 TVR was 97,420,458 and Share price 650p Marcap £633,232,977 Share price at 500p Marcap £487,102...

Comparing Metro Bank bond prices to equity this year

I've just done a quick comparison of bond prices for Metro Bank from this source data for bonds and this source data for equity. Here are the absolute values each month of this year. (Bond prices in Blue, Share price in Red) Setting both to start at 100 makes it relatively more interesting. It seems that the bond prices are leading the equity prices over the whole year. Bonds are 76% of their value from the begining of the year whilst shares are only 66% of their value from the start of the year. Is the equity on track to close the gap? 76% of the value of the share price at the begining of the year would be 153p. It looked like it was trying to make it on Monday afternoon. Perhaps we'll get there next Monday.. oh no that's a bank holiday. Make that Tuesday then. I own shares in Metro Bank. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research. I'm happy to share mine.

Lemming99

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